Shenhuo shares (000933): Low aluminum prices deduct non-post-profit replacement

Shenhuo shares (000933): Low aluminum prices deduct non-post-profit replacement
The company’s net profit attributable to its mother in 20182.390 thousand yuan, 19Q1 net profit 0.5.5 billion companies have 188 revenues in 18 years.35 trillion, a year down 0.34%; net profit attributable to mother 2.39 trillion, down 35 a year.11%.Among them, the net profit attributable to the mother in the fourth quarter was -0.5.3 billion, previously reduced losses4.67 trillion, a chain loss of 0.1.6 billion.The company’s 19Q1 revenue was 45.54 ppm, a decrease of 3 per year.36%; net profit attributable to mother 0.55 ppm, a decrease of 20 per year.27%, but up by 1 from the previous month.08 thousand yuan.Due to the sluggish aluminum prices in 18Q4, the company’s performance was lower than our expectations. This time, the company’s EPS for 19-21 will be 0.22/0.26/0.31 yuan.Taking into account that the company’s future production capacity in Yunnan has a room for cost reduction, and PE is currently estimated to be slightly lower than comparable companies, maintaining the company’s overweight rating. Net profit after deduction for 18 years is maximized. The company’s net profit after deduction for 18 years is -22.79 trillion, long-term non-recurring gains and losses 25.180,000 yuan, of which 27 is non-current asset disposal income.8.5 billion.The company transferred its headquarter to Yunnan Shenhuo 25 to insert electrolytic aluminum capacity indicators and Qin’ao aluminum 14 indicators to increase asset disposal income25.3.5 billion.The company’s non-post profit after 18Q4 deduction was -18.USD 3.8 billion. Due to the deep drop in aluminum prices during the quarter and the cost of inventory exceeded the net realisable value, the company caused a loss in inventory prices3.50 ppm; in the fourth quarter, the company deducted the impairment losses on fixed assets and construction in progress. The company accrued 7 for its aluminum subsidiaries and coal mines that merged to resolve excess capacity.US $ 5.6 billion in impairment losses on fixed assets.98 million impairment losses on construction in progress.In addition, the company’s initial goodwill was impaired by 0.6.8 billion yuan. The output of coal and primary aluminum fell in 18 years, and the unit cost rose. The company produced 564 inches of coal in 18 years, down 9 per year.9%; the production of aluminum products 108 inserts (Henan 28 headings, Xinjiang 80 above), and then decreases by 2.7%; production of carbon products 61 inserts (13 inserts in Henan, 48 inches in Xinjiang), an increase of 7.0%.The company’s coal business was affected by some capacity accidents and exits from the industry, resulting in a decline in production and a decline in gross profit margin.62 up to 37.94%; Affected by the fall in aluminum prices, the company’s 18-year aluminum ingot gross margin was 4.80%, a decrease of 14 per year.08 averages.The company plans to produce 595 tons of coal and 101 tons of electrolytic aluminum in 19 years. It plans to control the full cost of coal at 720 yuan / ton and the full cost of Henan / Xinjiang electrolytic aluminum at 14,400 yuan and 11150 yuan / ton, respectively. 19Q1 alumina price rises, the company benefits, Q2 performance may continue to grow month-on-month. 19Q1 primary aluminum price first declines and then rises. According to wind quotations, although the average price of primary aluminum Q1 is 13,530 yuan / ton, about 300 yuan lower than the previous month, but the size of raw alumina fell, Q1 Henan alumina average price 2825 yuan / ton, down 9 chain.1%.According to the company’s annual report output figures, the company’s alumina self-sufficiency rate is less than 40%. The decline in alumina is good for the company, and its performance in 19Q1 improved month-on-month.At the end of April, the aluminum price has exceeded 14,200 yuan / ton, and the company’s second-quarter performance is expected to continue to grow sequentially.The company will continue to focus on long-term development in 19 years, promote the construction of Shenhuo in Yunnan and raise funds to be used for the reconstruction and expansion of Liangbei Coal Mine. Earnings forecast 杭州桑拿养生会所 is lowered, but the company estimates it is low. Maintain overweight rating. According to the company’s production plan and 19Q1 performance, we expect the company’s EPS in 19-21 will be 0.22/0.26/0.At 31 yuan, the forecast for 19-20 is revised down by 13 from the previous time.0% / 12.9%.But refer to comparable company 24.The 19-year wind at 97 times is consistent with the expected PE, and the company estimates that it is low. We give the company 24-26 times PE in 19, corresponding to a target price of 5.28-5.72 yuan to maintain the overweight level. Risk warning: the price of aluminum and coal will fall; coal production will be lower than expected; production costs will increase.

Poly Real Estate (600048) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Main Business Advances and Retreats Freely

Poly Real Estate (600048) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Main Business Advances and Retreats Freely

Core point of view The company’s land acquisition is further corrected than the previous one, which increases the possibility of grasping land acquisition opportunities in the future.

The company’s engineering costs have increased, and the saleable resources are very rich, which has also increased the basis for continued sales growth in 2020.

   The company achieved revenue of 1117 in the first three quarters.

900 million, net profit attributable to mother 128.

300 million, an increase of 17 each year.

8% and 34.

1%, in line with expectations.

The company’s profit growth rate is faster than its income growth rate, mainly due to the company’s high gross profit resources in its settlement history.

   Take care carefully, temporary cameras can be selected.

In the first three quarters, the company achieved sales of 3468 trillion yuan, sales area of 22.94 million square 南宁桑拿 meters, expansion of 996 trillion yuan, and expanded capacity of 14.93 million square meters.

In the first three quarters, the company’s development amount accounted for only 29% of the sales amount, compared with 75% and 54% in the same period of 17 and 18 respectively.

The expansion area is only equivalent to 65% of the sales area, compared with 197% and 121% in the same period of 17 and 18 respectively.

Due to the company’s abundant reserves (24,772 square meters under construction), the company was able to choose a small amount of land.

Looking forward to the future, depending on the development of the land market, the company can either hold the land on dips, or continue to destock, and move forward and backward freely.

We believe that there may be land acquisition opportunities in the land market starting from 杭州夜生活网 the fourth quarter of 2019.

   The project budget has increased, and the value of goods has been abundant.

The company’s area under construction in the first three quarters reached 118.52 million square meters, an annual growth of 28.


The construction-in-progress ratio is 155%, a rapid increase from 114% at the end of 2018 (but still lower than Vanke’s ratio).

This increase in expenditures has even led to a small net replacement of operating cash flows in a single quarter, given the company’s lack of land and strong sales.

The company’s net interest rate increased slightly from the interim report, reaching 82%.

However, the engineering costs and land acquisition budgets are essentially different, which means that the company has huge potential for growth in the saleable resources in the future, and the sales contract amount is expected to maintain a high growth rate.

   Focus on the first and second tiers, but do not give up urban development.

The company’s development amount in first- and second-tier cities accounted for 76%.

These two companies sell deterministic alternatives and receive better returns.

The company has achieved growth and outperformed the industry in the first three quarters, and the fund withdrawal rate has increased by 3 compared with the same period in 2018.

62 averages, reaching 89.


  However, the company did not abandon the development of the incremental market, and the layout cities increased from 92 at the end of 2017 to 108 at the end of the third quarter of 2019.

The company appropriately increases the number of cities, which is conducive to the provision of new regional positions and stimulates the enthusiasm of the team.

   Two wings of the second venture, new business is rising.

Poly Investment Co., Ltd. cooperated with the leading Soviet Union Hefu, covering 210 cities; Poly Commercial continued to export asset management and brand in light asset mode.

We believe that the company’s new business is expected to become an important part of the company’s market value in the future.

   Risk factors: the risk that the company’s statement profitability will decline.

   Investment advice: We believe that the company has replaced the necessary capital reserves in response to possible uncertainties in the future industry.

The two wings business is also developing well.

We maintain the company’s EPS forecast2.


18 yuan, we combined absolute and relative estimation methods to maintain the company 18.

Target price of 41 yuan / share and investment rating of “Buy”.

Jinshi Resources (603505): Fluorite production continues to increase and average product price continues to rise

Jinshi Resources (603505): Fluorite production continues to increase and average product price continues to rise
The company achieved net profit attributable to mothers in the first three quarters1.660,000 yuan, an increase of 133 in ten years.56%.The company announced that it will achieve operating income for the first three quarters of 20195.44 ppm, a 47-year increase of 47.65%; net profit attributable to mothers1.6.6 billion, an annual increase of 133.56%; EPS0 achieved.69 yuan / share.Among them, 3Q2019 achieved revenue 1.USD 8.6 billion, an annual increase of 25.25%; net profit attributable to mother is 0.55 ppm, an increase of 93 in ten years.14%. Fluorite production has increased significantly. Xiangzheng Mining will carry out technological transformation to improve the resource recovery rate.In the reporting year, the company’s incremental production of fluorite products was 26, and the growth rate was expected to be 21; compared with the 杭州夜生活 production forecast of 18 in the same period last year, it increased by 44.44%.At the same time, the company announced that Inner Mongolia Xiangzhen Mining has been basically normal since the trial production of beneficiation in May and June.In order to further improve the resource recovery rate, starting from the end of the third quarter, the mining method has gradually changed from the original shallow hole mining method to the filling mining method. This technical transformation project will be completed by the end of this year or early next year.At the same time, the Lanxi project construction progress is normal, and the project is nearing the end of construction, and trial production is planned at the end of this year or early next year. Fluorite prices fell slightly in September, but average prices continued to increase in the third quarter of 2019.According to the data of 杭州夜网论坛 Zhuochuang Information we tracked, since September 2019, the price of fluorite wet powder began to fall from the price of more than 3,000 yuan / ton, until September 30, the price was 2800 yuan / ton.However, the average price in the third quarter of 2019 still maintained an upward trend. The average price of wet fluorite powder in the third quarter was 3,037 yuan / ton, and the second quarter of 2019 increased by 5 from the average price of 2,882 yuan / ton.36%; the average price before the third quarter of 2018 was 2,581 yuan / ton, an increase of 17 year-on-year.65%. The gross profit margin dropped slightly from the previous quarter and increased significantly.Affected by the fluctuation of the price of the main product fluorite wet powder, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin in the third quarter of 2019 was 61.53%, down slightly from the previous month.62 averages; a significant increase of 9.92 units.We believe that through the technical transformation of Xiangzhen Mining, the Lanxi Project will be put into production as scheduled, and the company’s fluorite production and sales volume is expected to reach another level in 2020. Profit forecast and investment rating.We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 1.01, 1.27, 1.61 yuan / share, the company is the leader in the fluorite industry. The growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers in 2019-2021 will be 76%, 26%, and 27%. Combined with the evaluation of comparable companies, we carefully consider 21-23 times PE in 2019, corresponding toReasonable value range 21.21-23.23 yuan, maintaining the sustainable market rating. risk warning.Potential risks from the price of fluorite, the risk of falling demand for downstream fluorochemicals, and the expected risks arising from the commissioning of new mines.

Xiaoxiong Electric (002959) First Coverage Report: Rising short-term epidemic of kings in the small appliance segment drives demand

Xiaoxiong Electric (002959) First Coverage Report: Rising short-term epidemic of kings in the small appliance segment drives demand

The birth of the bear, the counterattack from ODM to its own brand has become the home appliance capital of the world. Guangdong’s Shunde is a company with its own brand “Xiao Xiong” as its core, focusing on “Meng series” products and using e-commerce sales channels asThe main creative small appliance business.

The bear that started with ODM gradually introduced differentiated product segments such as yogurt machines, electric stew pots and health pots, and deployed and sold them through fast-growing e-commerce channels. With smaller products, it also has a very cost-effective price.Gradually established its own market segmentation.

Product side: Moe is a small household appliance, creating a life aesthetics company with a rich product line. Around the core strategy of product diversification, it has three major categories of kitchen appliances, small household appliances and other small household appliances, 28 sub-categories and products.The scope of application also gradually extends from young people to mothers and babies, middle-aged and elderly customer groups.

The company is unique in 杭州夜网论坛 industrial design, product color matching, and advertising. It is not only related to the main sales models of online channels, but also benefits from continuous R & D and innovation capabilities.

Channel end: Online distribution pioneer is one of Taobao’s small home appliance manufacturers that initially implements the “network authorization” sales model. At present, Xiaoxiong, which mainly uses e-commerce sales channels, accounts for 90% of online revenue.

41%, offline revenue accounted for 9%.


There are certain differences in the gross profit margin of the company under different sales models. Among them, online direct sales have the highest gross profit margin, followed by e-commerce platform warehousing, online distribution, offline distribution and export.

Pneumonia epidemic: short-term or further driving demand As the epidemic changes and controls, the trend of resumption of work across the country is gradually becoming clear, and the small household appliances sector is expected to become a rebound category, so that flexible online marketing strategies can achieve continuous even during the epidemicIncreasing demand, sales and marketing channels have been hit by the epidemic, and under the dynamic matching of demand and supply, the convenient product attributes of small appliances can quickly reach a balanced position.

The investment proposal estimates that the company’s revenue will be 35 in 20-21.

15, 45.

43 trillion, a growth rate of 30.

63%, 29.

23%; net profit 3.

48, 4.

4.6 billion, a growth rate of 33.

92%, 28.

19%, corresponding to EPS respectively 2.

90, 3.

72 yuan / share.

The current highest corresponds to 23 respectively.

54x, 18.


Based on the evaluation of existing listed companies in the industry, we give the company a reasonable assessment of 30 times PE in 2020, and the corresponding target price is 87.

0 yuan / share, the first coverage given a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: the risk of fluctuations in raw material prices, reducing the risk of changes in preferential policies, online sales account for a relatively high risk, and the macro economy is less than expected.

Top Group (601689): Automotive demand growth Q2 performance exceeds expectations

Top Group (601689): Automotive demand growth Q2 performance exceeds expectations

The output of customers decreased and the depreciation expenses increased. The results are expected to be advanced on July 16. The company released an interim report performance forecast. The company expects to realize net profit attributable to mothers in the second half of 20192.


200 million, 49% above the real interest rate?
54%; net profit attributable to mother was 0 in the second quarter.


0.6 billion, lower than expected results.

We believe that the company’s initial performance is gradually increasing due to the increase in sales of downstream customers, increasing depreciation expenses and increasing price pressure.

We believe that the company is a leader in the domestic NVH industry, and products such as forged aluminum control arms have been supplied to Tesla, BYD and other new energy vehicle leaders to make full use of the trend of electrification.

The company’s electronic vacuum pump has been developed to the third generation, and domestic alternative space is large.

Sometimes short-term problems are caused by reduced customer sales, but we are still optimistic about the company’s long-term development.

The company is expected to achieve EPS0 in 19-21.

55, 0.

60, 0.

67 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

The output of major customers has decreased, depreciation expenses have increased, and performance has been under pressure in the first half of the year.The continuous increase in output from downstream customers has led to insufficient production capacity and significant growth in revenue.

Due to the sluggish sales of OEMs, the pressure on cost control has increased, and the company’s price reduction pressure has decreased, resulting in a decline in revenue and gross profit margin.

At the end of 2018, the company’s construction in progress was transferred to fixed assets7.

60,000 yuan, the increase in depreciation expenses further reduced the gross profit margin.

We expect the company’s performance to be better than the first half if the sales volume of major customers improves in the second half.

Looking forward to next year, the company’s performance is expected to benefit from factors such as Tesla’s localization and improvement in industry sales.

The lightweight chassis business supplies Tesla, which is expected to fully benefit from the lightweight chassis products such as the forged aluminum control arm of the electric tide company have entered Geely, BYD, Tesla and other customers.

The demand for new energy vehicles for lightweighting exceeds that of traditional cars. The lightweight chassis business helps to benefit from the rapid development of new energy passenger vehicles.

In 2020, after Tesla is localized, it is expected to bring more orders to the company, and at the same time, Tesla Halo is expected to attract other new energy vehicle customers for the company.

The company initially plans to invest USD 5 billion in the development of lightweight chassis business. The automotive lightweight business has a bright future. The company has an earlier layout and continues to expand, injecting momentum into the company’s medium- and long-term growth.

According to the company’s annual report, electronic vacuum pumps have been upgraded to third-generation products, which have been supplied to many customers one after the other, and are currently in the ramp-up phase.

IBS (Intelligent Brake System) will reach the production time extended to 2022.

Grasp the trend of lightweight development and maintain the “Buy” rating. We 杭州桑拿网 consider the company to be the leader in the domestic NVH industry and follow the steady growth of high-quality customers. Actively deploy lightweight chassis business, which has been supplied to Tesla, BYD, etc., and is expected to fully benefit from electrification;The domestic development of electronic vacuum pump products is underway.

Taking into account the decrease in sales of customers in 19 years, we estimate the company’s net profit attributable to mothers to be 5 in 19-21.

81, 6.

37, 7.

1.1 billion (down 29.

3%, 29.

3%, 29.

0%), the corresponding EPS is 0.

55, 0.

60, 0.
67 yuan, comparable company’s 19-year average valuation of 17 times PE, considering that the company’s short-term performance is trapped by the growth of customer sales, but the future 西安耍耍网 has a broad prospect.
23 times PE estimate, adjust target price to 12.


65 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk reminder: R & D of emerging business is not up to expectations, overseas business is affected by Sino-US trade friction, and the industry’s prosperity is falling.

Shaogang Songshan (000717): JFE may acquire 50% equity of Baote Shaoguan

Shaogang Songshan (000717): JFE may acquire 50% equity of Baote Shaoguan
JFE became the sole assignee of 50% equity in Baote Shaoguan on November 18, the company issued an announcement saying that the termination of the announcement, JFE Steel Co., Ltd. was the sole assignee of 50% equity in Baote Shaoguan, a subsidiary of the company.The price is 6.9 trillion; Baote Shaoguan is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company’s military special production, 19H1 net profit 0.08,000 yuan, the average ROE is only 0.6%, lower than the company’s 15 in the same period.1%.After this equity offering, Baote Shaoguan will no longer be consolidated and the company’s average ROE will be increased to 18.8% (19H1 caliber), Baote Shaoguan may benefit from JFE’s shareholding in terms of technology and management.In view of the fact that the price of ore in the middle of 19 years is higher than expected in the commentary of the Interim Report, we have lowered our performance forecast and expect the EPS in 19-21 to be zero.69/0.62/0.81 yuan, the previous average is 0.77/0.79/0.85 yuan, still maintain the “overweight” rating.  After the adjustment of the business structure, in the short term, ROE may improve the company. In 2015, the special steel 杭州桑拿网 business department was established, and Baote Shaoguan was established. Thereafter, it cooperated with Baowu Special Steel and replaced Baote Shaoguan 100% in 2018 after several setbacks.Equity.We believe that due to product research and development, there are difficulties in market promotion. Baote Shaoguan’s profitability has been poor since 19 years. It decreased by 14.5 million yuan in 19Q1 and only 8 million yuan in profit in 19H1.After the company transfers 50% equity of Baote Shaoguan, the company will no longer consolidate Baote Shaoguan. The company’s book ROE will be improved, and the company’s average ROE will be replaced by 15 in 19H1.1% increased to 18.8%.  JFE is Japan’s second largest steel group and may cooperate in depth in the future. According to the World Steel Association, JFE Steel is the eighth largest in 北京体验网 the world and Japan’s second largest steel group. In 2018, crude steel output reached 2915.JFE steel products cover a variety of types such as coiled plates, medium and heavy plates, steel pipes, and shaped steel, which has become the world’s leading steel research and development capability.If the 50% stake in Baote Shaoguan is successfully transferred, Baote Shaoguan may benefit in terms of technology and management.  A fair incentive plan was formulated, and the performance conditions during the exercise period were fulfilled or existed. On November 11, the company released the “2019 Stock Budget Incentive Plan (Budget)”, which plans to award incentive objects to no more than 23.94 million stock expenditures (0%).99%), the waiting period, the exercise period is 2, 3 years, respectively, a total of 3 batches of exercise.The reward conditions include no less than 9% non-ROE deduction for the previous fiscal year on the grant date, and no less than 3 billion accumulated non-profit profits; the exercise conditions include no less than 11%, 12%, 13 for non-ROE deduction for the previous fiscal year.%, Based on the accumulative growth rate of the non-deductible profit in the middle of the three years before the grant date is not less than 3%, 4%, and 5%.Assuming it is awarded in FY19, the conditions for grant have been fulfilled; the non-profit accrual accrued during the assessment period of 20-22 years should not be less than 20.2, 20.4, 20.600 million, and we expect a total profit of 15 in 20-21.0, 19.700 million (low non-recurring profit and loss ratio), it may be difficult to meet the standard.  ROE may be improved in the short term. Maintain “Overweight” rating. If the 50% equity transfer of Baote Shaoguan is successful, the company’s ROE may be improved in the short term; however, the timing of the transfer has not been determined and earnings forecasts will not be considered for the time being.Taking into account that the price of iron ore in the mid-19th year is higher than expected in the comment of the Interim Report, we have lowered our performance forecast and expect the EPS in 19-21 to be zero.69/0.62/0.81 yuan (previous value was 0.77/0.79/0.85 yuan), the corresponding PE is 5.05/5.65/4.32 times.Comparable companies PB (2019E) average 1.24. Considering that the company intends to invest to reduce logistics costs and still reduce its internal space, the company’s PB (2019E) is set to 1.2-1.3 times, BPS (2019E) is taken as 3.25 yuan, corresponding to a target price of 3.90-4.22 yuan, still maintain the “overweight” level.  Risk Warning: The progress of the transfer is less than expected; the price of iron ore rises; downstream demand is less than expected.

Zhongke Sanhuan (000970): 1H19 performance is in line with expectations; expected to benefit from rare price increases

Zhongke Sanhuan (000970): 1H19 performance is in line with expectations; expected to benefit from rare price increases

The 1H19 results are in line with our expectations. The 1H19 results announced by China Science and Technology Sanhuan: operating income 18.

800 million, down 4 every year.

5%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

0 million, corresponding to a profit of 0.

09 yuan, down 10 every year.

7%, in line with our expectations; net profit after deduction is 85.06 million yuan, down 16% every year.

The company’s operating 都市夜网income in the second quarter of 19 9.

600 million, down 6 every year.

1%, up 4 from the previous quarter.

3%, net profit attributable to mother is 56.09 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20%, a month-on-month increase of 27%, and a gross profit margin of 17 in 2Q19.

8%, a decrease of 1 per year.

4ppt, a decrease of 1 from the previous month.

2ppt, the improvement in performance from the previous quarter was mainly due to the decrease in financial expenses and impairment from the previous quarter.

Comments: 1) The price of rare earths in 1H19 has been decreasing year by year, but it has increased rapidly in 4 months.

The new domestic average price of thorium oxide in 1H19 was 30.

50,000 tons / ton, down 9% every year, the average price in the second quarter of 19 was 30.

50,000 tons / ton, a decline of 8% per year, a chain decrease of 0.


As of August 16th, the domestic price of neodymium oxide and neodymium oxide gradually rebounded by 14% or 3 in late April.

70,000 / ton to 30.

50,000 tons / ton.

2) 1H19 comprehensive gross profit margin decreased slightly by 1.

8ppt to 18.

4% (Gross profits are net of taxes and surcharges).

3) The increase of 1H19 financial expenses from 17.12 million to 5.84 million yuan was mainly due to the decrease in exchange income.

The financial expense ratio increases by 0 every year.

9ppt to 0.


4) 1H19 sales + management + research and development expenses total annual +16.86 million yuan, of which the management expense rate +0 per year.

6ppt to 6.


5) 1H19 investment income + net income from changes in fair value increased by 17.53 million yuan to 4.59 million yuan per year.

6) 1H19 asset impairment + credit impairment loss decreased by at least 30.06 million yuan to -32.07 million yuan, mainly due to 1H19 inventory depreciation reserve reversal of 25.19 million yuan, higher than 1H18 reversion of 1.19 million yuan.

The development trend benefits from the increase in the price of rare earth.

In May of this year, Myanmar ‘s rare earth imports were officially reduced, and domestic rare earth supplies were tight. We believe that the price increase in the second half of the year has changed significantly, and the support for heavy rare earth prices is higher than that for light rare earths.

The company mainly adopts the method of locking the gross profit margin, and we believe that it is expected to obtain an upstream surplus price center increase.

In terms of downstream demand, CICC Motors estimates that domestic new energy vehicle sales in 2019 will be 1.4 million, with an annual growth rate of 11.

5%, mainly due to the subsidy decline, but the growth rate in 2020 is trying to pick up?30%.
In the short term, we believe that new energy vehicle sales in the third quarter are trying to pick up month-on-month, supported by the peak season.

Earnings Forecasts and Estimates We maintain our 2019/20 profit forecast for the third ring of China Science and Technology.


20 yuan.

The current company complies with the corresponding 2019/20202.

3 times / 2.

2 times price-to-book ratio.

杭州夜网论坛 We maintain a neutral rating of 9.

Target price of 50 yuan, corresponding to 2.

2x 2019 P / B ratio and 2.

2 times the 2020 P / B ratio, compared with the recent inclusion of 3.

9% downside.

Risk magnetic material demand was less than expected, and rare earth prices fell sharply.

Guangdong Expressway A (000429): Depreciation change contributes 8PPT profit growth rate to return to 2020 high growth certainty

Guangdong Expressway A (000429): Depreciation change contributes 8PPT profit growth rate to return to 2020 high growth certainty
Company status The company announced that it will change its accounting estimates from January 1, 2020, and use the re-evaluated traffic volume of Fokai Expressway and Guangzhu East 杭州夜生活网 Expressway in 2019 as the basis for the depreciation after the change.The original traffic forecast based on depreciation was completed in 2013. Due to the reconstruction and expansion of the southern section of Fokai and changes in the road network around Guangzhu East, it is no longer applicable to the current situation. The company predicted in the announcement that this change in depreciation accounting estimates will reduce depreciation costs from 2020 and will contribute net profit after tax1 in 2020.06 ppm, according to our profit assumptions, this change will contribute to the company’s annual performance growth of 8ppt.In addition, because the change is handled using a future applicable method, it will not affect the previous year’s finances. Commentary on the traffic volume is estimated to often increase profits 无锡夜网 from time to time.The company adopts the traffic flow method for depreciation, that is, the balance of fixed assets is allocated every year according to the predicted traffic flow of the current year to the predicted proportion of the total traffic flow during the operating period.The company’s traffic flow forecast is often conservative, so the depreciation ratio in the early part of the operating period is higher than the actual traffic flow.Therefore, updating the forecasted future traffic flow during the operating period and making depreciation adjustments in accordance with the applicable future method will effectively reduce the depreciation cost of the remaining operating costs.Looking back, due to conservative depreciation estimates, the company-owned Guangfo Expressway completed depreciation about 5 years in advance and released 20171.100 million net profit after tax. If the new version of the depreciation policy is still conservative, it is still expected to complete depreciation and release profits in advance. The completion of the reconstruction and expansion of the southern section of the Fokai Expressway has achieved outstanding results and increased the company’s profit in 2020.2019: The reconstruction and expansion of the southern section of the Fokai Expressway was completed and opened to traffic on November 7, 2019. Higher toll rates will apply from the opening date, and traffic growth will increase.However, due to the depreciation of supplementary new fixed assets, we expect that the impact of reconstruction and expansion on current year’s earnings will be neutral.2020: We expect to postpone approval and the post-opening incentive effect and its total contribution2.3?2.The net profit of USD 400 billion (approximately 15% of the estimated net profit for the current year), the key assumptions include: ① Completion of the extension approval at the end of 2Q, which will be extended 10 years from the original termination date of 2026.In 15 years, ② the gradual traffic flow will increase by 12% in 2020 after the opening of traffic, and the bicycle charging rate will increase by 15% every year. It is estimated that due to the ban on heavy trucks banned by Humen Bridge, the tolls of Guangzhou-Zhuhai East continue to fall short of expectations. We lower our 2019 profit forecast by 5% to 13.20 ppm (not deducting -8% YoY); comprehensively considering the positive effects of this depreciation policy adjustment and the substitution effect of Humen Bridge on Guangzhu East, basically maintaining the 2020 forecast16.7.2 billion (+ 27% YoY); date 2021 forecast 18.8.6 billion yuan (+ 13% year-on-year).The current contradiction corresponds to 13/10 times 2019/20 P / E, 5.4% / 6.8% dividend yield in 2019/20.The company’s performance in 2020 is highly flexible and its dividends are considerable. We repeat the A-share outperform industry rating, which corresponds to 12 times the 2020 PER and 14% upside. Risks Humen Bridge Cargo Limit Exceeds Expectations, Fokai Reconstruction Extension Expansion Review Is Slower Than Expected

Divine Information (000555) In-depth Research Report: Fintech Leads Independent Innovation and Opens New Era

Divine Information (000555) In-depth Research Report: Fintech Leads Independent Innovation and Opens New Era
Fintech leading companies are expected to usher in a turning point.The company has been deeply involved in the financial industry for more than 30 years, covering more than 700 various financial institutions across the country, participating in the formulation of national ITSS standards, and has extensive construction experience and practice.According to the IDC report, the company’s core business solutions and channel management solutions ranked first in the industry for seven consecutive years.At the same time, the company gradually integrates and extends to non-bank financial, government, enterprise, and agricultural industries based on banks, fully taps data and scenario resources, and empowers financial digital transformation.Benefiting from the trend of independent innovation in the financial field, and the company’s independent innovation products are expected to gradually develop, the company strives to enter a rapid growth track. The first to launch distributed architecture products, leading the financial IT development trend.Compared with the centralized architecture, the distributed architecture is gradually being favored by the financial industry due to its scalability, size, stronger adaptability and controllability, and more suitable for cloud deployment. The financial IT architecture has become inevitable from centralized to diversified.trend. The company initiated a project in 2015 to start building a diversified application development platform. In 2016, it formally released the first distributed application platform in developing countries, Sm @ rtGalaxy. Based on this platform, it successively built a diversified core business system, a unified payment platform, and a bank.Internet 北京夜网 financial platforms and other business applications.At present, the company has implemented distributed application development platforms and diversified core business systems for more than 40 financial institutions, ranking first in the domestic market.In addition, the company promoted the overall banking information system solution to the Southeast Asian market and financial companies, which brought opportunities for the company’s development in overseas markets and pan-financial fields. Work with Huawei to jointly promote the independent innovation and development of the financial IT system.The acceleration of independent financial innovation has brought market potential for domestic software and hardware infrastructure restructuring.The company’s self-developed application products, especially the distributed core system, 杭州桑拿 have become the first choice for application adaptation of software and hardware infrastructure independently developed in China due to its diverse characteristics, extensive practical applications, and good market reputation.In July 2019, China Information and Huawei jointly released the “Bank Joint Business System Joint Solution” and “Cloudized Open Bank Joint Solution”, which fully realized the full integration of independent innovation technologies and products from infrastructure to upper-layer applications. The benefits of scenario-based application of blockchain technology are beginning to show.The company has been developing blockchain technology since 2015. The intelligent blockchain platform Sm @ rtGAS independently developed by the company has promoted the integrated application of blockchain technology around the financial system, focusing on application scenarios and ecological construction.The market has launched a series of products such as supply chain finance, digital currency, digital wallet, reconciliation and settlement, prepaid cards, point exchange and other products. At the same time, it is exploring cross-border exchange, agricultural land confirmation, agricultural traceability and other scenarios. Investment suggestion: We predict that the company’s net profit attributable to its mother in 2019-2021 will be 3.6.9 billion, 4.5.9 billion, 5.6.7 billion, corresponding to 43 times, 35 times, and 28 times the corresponding PE.With reference to comparable companies’ estimates, taking into account the company’s leading layout in the financial technology field, a certain valuation premium will be given, and the company will be given 50 times PE in 2020, with a corresponding target price of 23.66 yuan, the first coverage given a “strong push” rating. Risk warning: industry growth rate decline; goodwill impairment risk.

Science and Technology Board Inquiry Report for Hot Scene Biology (688068)

Science and Technology Board Inquiry Report for Hot Scene Biology (688068)
A quality company in the field of in vitro diagnostics.The company was established in 2005. It is mainly engaged in the research and development, production and sales of in vitro diagnostic reagents and instruments. It has successfully constructed the above-mentioned converted luminescence technology as the core, the main disease diagnosis technology platform at the POCT site, mainly used for liver cancer hepatitis, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseasesAntibiotic infection and other clinical medical fields.The company’s main financial indicators and profit forecasts.The company achieved operating income in 20181.870,000 yuan, an increase of 31 in ten years.7%; net profit attributable to mother is 0.48 ppm, an increase of 60 in ten years.1%; The company’s gross profit margin in 2018 was 73.7%, with a net interest rate of 25.8%, ROE is 23.0%, asset-liability budget 21.2%, the overall operating conditions are good.We predict that the company’s operating revenue for 2019-2021 will be 2 respectively.3.4 billion, 2.8.9 billion yuan and 3.55 ppm; net profit attributable to mothers is 0.5.6 billion.7.1 billion and 0.8.8 billion yuan.Company valuation and inquiry analysis.This report focuses on the evaluation and analysis of companies using different methodologies and systems, and at the same time the corresponding reasonable inquiry interval.We use historical estimation reference method, relative estimation PE method and absolute estimation DCF method to analyze and calculate 天津夜网 the company evaluation, and use different weights of various estimation methods according to the specific situation of the company.Based on comprehensive analysis, we use the historical estimation reference method to predict the company’s valuation as 16.0 million yuan, using the PE method to predict the company’s valuation is 16.90,000 yuan, using the DCF method to predict the company’s valuation is 24.800 million.We gave 30% weighting to the historical evaluation reference method, 60% weighting to the PE evaluation method, and 10% weighting to the DCF estimation method, which ultimately led to the company’s estimated estimate of approximately 17.400000000.We assume that the number of new shares issued by the company this time is 15.55 million shares and the total share capital of the company after the issuance is 62.2 million shares. Based on the company’s predicted market value, the corresponding replacement of the company is 27.97 yuan / share, the recommended inquiry range is[24.32, 31.62]yuan / share.Risk reminders: industry policy risks; similar product market competition risks; product R & D failure risks.