Guizhou Moutai (600519): The second-quarter speed-up expressway awaits direct operation

Guizhou Moutai (600519): The second-quarter speed-up expressway awaits direct operation
Event: Guizhou Moutai released the main operating data announcement for the first half of 2019: The report actually realized operating income of 41.2 billion, an increase of 16.9%; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 19.9 billion, a further increase of 26.2%.Achieve the output of Moutai base wine3.44 years, production of series of wine-based wines.09. Q2 single quarter exceeded expectations and shipments increased slightly.It is estimated that the company’s Q2 realized operating income of 18.7 billion, an annual increase of 11.0%; net profit attributable to mothers was 870,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%.The revenue in the second quarter was slightly lower than expected, because the shipments did not increase every 武汉夜网论坛 year, and the direct company plan was not implemented yet.Implementation plan of Moutai in the first half of the year 1.In April, according to the channel survey, some dealers have implemented the July plan in advance, so the total shipments have increased slightly.As Moutai’s direct sales plan has not yet landed, the performance growth trend is normal in the case of a small increase in shipments.The fundamental situation in the first half of the year still needs to wait for further confirmation of the cash flow on the statement side and the accounts receivable account. Approval prices continued to rise, and channel inventory was still low.The Q2 colonial price continued to increase. Currently it has exceeded 2,000 yuan / bottle, and some areas have reached more than 2,100 yuan / bottle, but it has gradually slowed down recently.In addition, according to the channel survey, after the implementation of the plan in July, dealer inventory is still tight.The high approval prices and low channels still reflect the strong demand for Moutai terminals, and the subsequent double-stock season is still worth looking forward to. The medium- and long-term logic remains unchanged, waiting for the direct marketing solution to land.We expect that this year’s increase in Moutai will mainly come from the increase in the proportion of direct sales, but the overall market expectations have not yet reached the point, that is, the company will provide direct sales companies at prices.We believe that due to the multi-faceted interests, the determination of the plan has a significant impact, so we need to intervene carefully.However, the company’s long-term logic will not change because the current situation of strong demand and tight supply has not yet broken through. At the same time, the company is a consumer product company with the strongest domestic brand premium ability, and its long-term profit is still guaranteed. Earnings forecast and investment advice EPS is expected to be 35 in 2019-2021.54 yuan, 41.47 yuan, 49.89 yuan, corresponding to PE is 27.7 times, 23.8 times, 19.8 times.Maintain “Buy” rating and maintain target price of 1066.2 yuan. Risk reminders: policy risks in the liquor industry; risks of changes in market demand; plans for direct companies are less than expected